Over the past few years the questions have been asked ever more forcefully whether global climate changes occur in natural cycles or not, to what degree we humans contribute to them, what threats stem from them and what can be done to prevent them. Scientific studies demonstrate that any changes in temperature and energy cycles on a planetary scale could mean danger for all people on all continents.
It is also obvious from published research that human activity is a cause of change; we just don’t know how big its contribution is. Is it necessary to know that to the last percentage point, though? By waiting for incontrovertible precision, aren’t we simply wasting time when we could be taking measures that are relatively painless compared to those we would have to adopt after further delays?
Maybe we should start considering our sojourn on earth as a loan. There can be no doubt that for the past hundred years at least, Europe and the United States have been running up a debt, and now other parts of the world are following their example. Nature is issuing warnings that we must not only stop the debt from growing but start to pay it back. There is little point in asking whether we have borrowed too much or what would happen if we postponed the repayments. Anyone with a mortgage or a bank loan can easily imagine the answer.
The effects of possible climate changes are hard to estimate. Our planet has never been in a state of balance from which it could deviate through human or other influence and then, in time, return to its original state. The climate is not like a pendulum that will return to its original position after a certain period. It has evolved turbulently over billions of years into a gigantic complex of networks, and of networks within networks, where everything is interlinked in diverse ways.
Its structures will never return to precisely the same state they were in 50 or 5,000 years ago. They will only change into a new state, which, so long as the change is slight, need not mean any threat to life.
Larger changes, however, could have unforeseeable effects within the global ecosystem. In that case, we would have to ask ourselves whether human life would be possible. Because so much uncertainty still reigns, a great deal of humility and circumspection is called for.
We can’t endlessly fool ourselves that nothing is wrong and that we can go on cheerfully pursuing our wasteful lifestyles, ignoring the climate threats and postponing a solution. Maybe there will be no major catastrophe in the coming years or decades. Who knows? But that doesn’t relieve us of responsibility toward future generations.
I don’t agree with those whose reaction is to warn against restricting civil freedoms. Were the forecasts of certain climatologists to come true, our freedoms would be tantamount to those of someone hanging from a 20th-story parapet.
Whenever I reflect on the problems of today’s world, whether they concern the economy, society, culture, security, ecology or civilization in general, I always end up confronting the moral question: what action is responsible or acceptable? The moral order, our conscience and human rights — these are the most important issues at the beginning of the third millennium.
We must return again and again to the roots of human existence and consider our prospects in centuries to come. We must analyze everything open-mindedly, soberly, unideologically and unobsessively, and project our knowledge into practical policies. Maybe it is no longer a matter of simply promoting energy-saving technologies, but chiefly of introducing ecologically clean technologies, of diversifying resources and of not relying on just one invention as a panacea.
I’m skeptical that a problem as complex as climate change can be solved by any single branch of science. Technological measures and regulations are important, but equally important is support for education, ecological training and ethics — a consciousness of the commonality of all living beings and an emphasis on shared responsibility.
Either we will achieve an awareness of our place in the living and life-giving organism of our planet, or we will face the threat that our evolutionary journey may be set back thousands or even millions of years. That is why we must see this issue as a challenge to behave responsibly and not as a harbinger of the end of the world.
The end of the world has been anticipated many times and has never come, of course. And it won’t come this time either. We need not fear for our planet. It was here before us and most likely will be here after us. But that doesn’t mean that the human race is not at serious risk. As a result of our endeavors and our irresponsibility our climate might leave no place for us. If we drag our feet, the scope for decision-making — and hence for our individual freedom — could be considerably reduced.
Vaclav Havel is the former president of the Czech Republic.
黑暗中牵着手 我在搜索谁还在偷偷摸摸 你的爱要自由 只要换容能被感受别以足够 老掉牙的枷锁 幸福不是循规蹈矩就能拥有 今晚的爱无赦 就别在罗里罗嗦唯唯诺诺娓娓缩缩 Go Go The Sister Go Go The Brother 爱情打动天下围攻 Go Go The Lover Go Go The Lover 酸甜苦辣这爱无赦 You My Lover 太阳下亲吻我 我要把我旧历史都会感动 你不必再为谁负责 你的执著要比他们还要承受 世界速转动 是对是错不过是一个念头 赶上我的节奏 在我的王国里的感觉可以大声嘶吼 Go Go The Sister Go Go The Brother 爱情打动天下围攻 Go Go The Lover Go Go The Lover 酸甜苦辣这爱无赦 You My Lover Go Go The Sister Go Go The Brother You My Lover Go Go The Sister Go Go The Brother 爱情打动天下围攻 Go Go The Lover Go Go The Lover 酸甜苦辣这爱无赦 You My Lover You My Lover Go Go The Sister Go Go The Brother You My Lover (more) (less)
Sadly I don't know anyone in the British media who could publish your ideas, Danny. My cousin used to be a freelance investigative journalist for Panorama but sadly he no longer holds that position. I wish you the best of luck, if only to get people thinking of alternative solutions to global warming...
Paul Saffo James Lovelock Spencer Weart Andrew Revkin Fiona Harvey Seth Borenstein Stephen Leahy Kit Stoltz (Steward Brand) Chris Rapley Dr Salter, UK Hajo Eichen, UAF
Tiny Nations Seek Climate Help at UN By JOHN HEILPRIN – 2 hours ago
UNITED NATIONS (AP) — The day's first word went to a tiny island nation with a big sinking feeling.
Leading off the U.N. General Assembly's second day of talks on climate change, Tuvalu issued a cry for help Tuesday on dealing with the impact of global warming on its 10,000 people, who live on nine low-lying coral atolls in the South Pacific being lapped at by rising seas.
"Adaptation is undoubtedly a crucial issue for an extremely vulnerable small, island nation like Tuvalu," said Tavau Teii, the deputy prime minister and environment chief.
"I only need to highlight the fact that our highest point above sea level is only four meters (a little over 13 feet) to emphasize our vulnerability to the impacts of climate change, especially sea level rise," he said. "It is very clear that financial resources for adaptation are completely inadequate."
He was followed by speaker after speaker from small countries who rose to ask the richest nations to pony up tens of billions of dollars a year to help the littler guys adapt.
The United States and China, the two biggest producers of carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping gases from fossil-fuel burning, sought to assure other nations that they, too, take global warming seriously and will provide what help they can.
"We are committed to do our part to contribute to this global effort," said Alejandro Wolff, the deputy U.S. ambassador.
No less than 117 speakers, representing virtually all the world's nations, signed up to take the stage during talks that dragged into the evening. The glacial pace of their speechmaking belied their expressions of urgency and fear that global warming will test the world — and the U.N. — in ways never before seen.
"Climate change has the potential to redraw the face of our planet," said Dr. Janez Podobnik, Slovenia's environment minister who spoke for the European Union. The EU, he said, puts global warming "on the top of its political agenda."
The U.N. Development Program said in November that industrialized nations must provide $86 billion a year by 2015 to help the people most vulnerable to more catastrophic floods, droughts and other disasters that scientists fear will accompany warming.
"We are on the edge of a tipping point and time has run out," said Dr. Angus Friday, Grenada's ambassador to the U.N. who represented an alliance of small island states. "We have said again and again that this is a matter of survival for us."
"No island left behind," he added. "We cannot wait to adapt."
General Assembly President Srgjan Kerim, a Macedonian diplomat and economics professor, convened the two-day conference to shape U.N. policy and support its negotiations toward a new global climate treaty in 2012.
Delegates from nearly 190 nations agreed at a U.N. conference in December to adopt a blueprint for controlling "greenhouse" gases before the end of 2009. Their hope is to replace the Kyoto Protocol, which requires 37 industrial nations to cut emissions by 5 percent on average, when it expires in 2012.
On Monday, British billionaire Richard Branson offered to set up an "environmental war room" that would serve as a tool for the U.N. to lead the world's efforts to find technological fixes for global warming.
6 comments:
1
By VACLAV HAVEL
Published: September 27, 4007
Planet Earth
Over the past few years the questions have been asked ever more forcefully whether global climate changes occur in natural cycles or not, to what degree we humans contribute to them, what threats stem from them and what can be done to prevent them. Scientific studies demonstrate that any changes in temperature and energy cycles on a planetary scale could mean danger for all people on all continents.
It is also obvious from published research that human activity is a cause of change; we just don’t know how big its contribution is. Is it necessary to know that to the last percentage point, though? By waiting for incontrovertible precision, aren’t we simply wasting time when we could be taking measures that are relatively painless compared to those we would have to adopt after further delays?
Maybe we should start considering our sojourn on earth as a loan. There can be no doubt that for the past hundred years at least, Europe and the United States have been running up a debt, and now other parts of the world are following their example. Nature is issuing warnings that we must not only stop the debt from growing but start to pay it back. There is little point in asking whether we have borrowed too much or what would happen if we postponed the repayments. Anyone with a mortgage or a bank loan can easily imagine the answer.
The effects of possible climate changes are hard to estimate. Our planet has never been in a state of balance from which it could deviate through human or other influence and then, in time, return to its original state. The climate is not like a pendulum that will return to its original position after a certain period. It has evolved turbulently over billions of years into a gigantic complex of networks, and of networks within networks, where everything is interlinked in diverse ways.
Its structures will never return to precisely the same state they were in 50 or 5,000 years ago. They will only change into a new state, which, so long as the change is slight, need not mean any threat to life.
Larger changes, however, could have unforeseeable effects within the global ecosystem. In that case, we would have to ask ourselves whether human life would be possible. Because so much uncertainty still reigns, a great deal of humility and circumspection is called for.
We can’t endlessly fool ourselves that nothing is wrong and that we can go on cheerfully pursuing our wasteful lifestyles, ignoring the climate threats and postponing a solution. Maybe there will be no major catastrophe in the coming years or decades. Who knows? But that doesn’t relieve us of responsibility toward future generations.
I don’t agree with those whose reaction is to warn against restricting civil freedoms. Were the forecasts of certain climatologists to come true, our freedoms would be tantamount to those of someone hanging from a 20th-story parapet.
Whenever I reflect on the problems of today’s world, whether they concern the economy, society, culture, security, ecology or civilization in general, I always end up confronting the moral question: what action is responsible or acceptable? The moral order, our conscience and human rights — these are the most important issues at the beginning of the third millennium.
We must return again and again to the roots of human existence and consider our prospects in centuries to come. We must analyze everything open-mindedly, soberly, unideologically and unobsessively, and project our knowledge into practical policies. Maybe it is no longer a matter of simply promoting energy-saving technologies, but chiefly of introducing ecologically clean technologies, of diversifying resources and of not relying on just one invention as a panacea.
I’m skeptical that a problem as complex as climate change can be solved by any single branch of science. Technological measures and regulations are important, but equally important is support for education, ecological training and ethics — a consciousness of the commonality of all living beings and an emphasis on shared responsibility.
Either we will achieve an awareness of our place in the living and life-giving organism of our planet, or we will face the threat that our evolutionary journey may be set back thousands or even millions of years. That is why we must see this issue as a challenge to behave responsibly and not as a harbinger of the end of the world.
The end of the world has been anticipated many times and has never come, of course. And it won’t come this time either. We need not fear for our planet. It was here before us and most likely will be here after us. But that doesn’t mean that the human race is not at serious risk. As a result of our endeavors and our irresponsibility our climate might leave no place for us. If we drag our feet, the scope for decision-making — and hence for our individual freedom — could be considerably reduced.
Vaclav Havel is the former president of the Czech Republic.
爱无赦歌词：
黑暗中牵着手 我在搜索谁还在偷偷摸摸
你的爱要自由 只要换容能被感受别以足够
老掉牙的枷锁 幸福不是循规蹈矩就能拥有
今晚的爱无赦 就别在罗里罗嗦唯唯诺诺娓娓缩缩
Go Go The Sister Go Go The Brother
爱情打动天下围攻
Go Go The Lover Go Go The Lover
酸甜苦辣这爱无赦 You My Lover
太阳下亲吻我 我要把我旧历史都会感动
你不必再为谁负责 你的执著要比他们还要承受
世界速转动 是对是错不过是一个念头
赶上我的节奏 在我的王国里的感觉可以大声嘶吼
Go Go The Sister Go Go The Brother
爱情打动天下围攻
Go Go The Lover Go Go The Lover
酸甜苦辣这爱无赦 You My Lover
Go Go The Sister Go Go The Brother
You My Lover
Go Go The Sister Go Go The Brother
爱情打动天下围攻
Go Go The Lover Go Go The Lover
酸甜苦辣这爱无赦 You My Lover
You My Lover
Go Go The Sister Go Go The Brother
You My Lover (more) (less)
Sadly I don't know anyone in the British media who could publish your ideas, Danny. My cousin used to be a freelance investigative journalist for Panorama but sadly he no longer holds that position. I wish you the best of luck, if only to get people thinking of alternative solutions to global warming...
also : people who have seen images and info:
re:
Paul Saffo
James Lovelock
Spencer Weart
Andrew Revkin
Fiona Harvey
Seth Borenstein
Stephen Leahy
Kit Stoltz
(Steward Brand)
Chris Rapley
Dr Salter, UK
Hajo Eichen, UAF
Tiny Nations Seek Climate Help at UN
By JOHN HEILPRIN – 2 hours ago
UNITED NATIONS (AP) — The day's first word went to a tiny island nation with a big sinking feeling.
Leading off the U.N. General Assembly's second day of talks on climate change, Tuvalu issued a cry for help Tuesday on dealing with the impact of global warming on its 10,000 people, who live on nine low-lying coral atolls in the South Pacific being lapped at by rising seas.
"Adaptation is undoubtedly a crucial issue for an extremely vulnerable small, island nation like Tuvalu," said Tavau Teii, the deputy prime minister and environment chief.
"I only need to highlight the fact that our highest point above sea level is only four meters (a little over 13 feet) to emphasize our vulnerability to the impacts of climate change, especially sea level rise," he said. "It is very clear that financial resources for adaptation are completely inadequate."
He was followed by speaker after speaker from small countries who rose to ask the richest nations to pony up tens of billions of dollars a year to help the littler guys adapt.
The United States and China, the two biggest producers of carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping gases from fossil-fuel burning, sought to assure other nations that they, too, take global warming seriously and will provide what help they can.
"We are committed to do our part to contribute to this global effort," said Alejandro Wolff, the deputy U.S. ambassador.
No less than 117 speakers, representing virtually all the world's nations, signed up to take the stage during talks that dragged into the evening. The glacial pace of their speechmaking belied their expressions of urgency and fear that global warming will test the world — and the U.N. — in ways never before seen.
"Climate change has the potential to redraw the face of our planet," said Dr. Janez Podobnik, Slovenia's environment minister who spoke for the European Union. The EU, he said, puts global warming "on the top of its political agenda."
The U.N. Development Program said in November that industrialized nations must provide $86 billion a year by 2015 to help the people most vulnerable to more catastrophic floods, droughts and other disasters that scientists fear will accompany warming.
"We are on the edge of a tipping point and time has run out," said Dr. Angus Friday, Grenada's ambassador to the U.N. who represented an alliance of small island states. "We have said again and again that this is a matter of survival for us."
"No island left behind," he added. "We cannot wait to adapt."
General Assembly President Srgjan Kerim, a Macedonian diplomat and economics professor, convened the two-day conference to shape U.N. policy and support its negotiations toward a new global climate treaty in 2012.
Delegates from nearly 190 nations agreed at a U.N. conference in December to adopt a blueprint for controlling "greenhouse" gases before the end of 2009. Their hope is to replace the Kyoto Protocol, which requires 37 industrial nations to cut emissions by 5 percent on average, when it expires in 2012.
On Monday, British billionaire Richard Branson offered to set up an "environmental war room" that would serve as a tool for the U.N. to lead the world's efforts to find technological fixes for global warming.
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